Research Base

Diplomas Now Research Base

Diplomas Now is putting the Ed Fund's groundbreaking dropout prevention research, with Johns Hopkins University, into practice in Philadelphia schools.

Resource:

> Johns Hopkins University (JHU) and the Ed Fund's, Early Warning Indicators

Findings:

The study followed approximately 13,000 students, who were sixth graders in 1996–97 forward to a 2003–04, or a year past expected graduation. Among the more than 20 variables screened including standardized test scores, overage, suspensions, and special education status, the four variables that are most predictive of student drop out:

  • Low attendance (less than 80%)
  • Poor behavior (three or more negative behavior marks)
  • Course failure in literacy
  • Course failure in Math

Sixth graders in Philadelphia who exhibit one of these variables have only a 10–20% chance of graduating from high school. When we replicated this research in six other cities, including Boston, Indianapolis, and New York City, the same four variables were most strongly correlated to dropping out.
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